报告题目 | Fiscal Reform, Government Debt and Female Labor Supply in Japan | |||
报告人（单位） | 胡云芳教授（神户大学） | |||
点评人（单位） | 李昊（泛亚电竞官方网站） | 主持人（单位） | 浦正宁（泛亚电竞官方网站） | |
会议时间 | 2023年9月13日（周三）10:00 | |||
会议地点 | ||||
报告人简介 | ||||
胡云芳，神户大学经济学研究科教授。清华大学应用数学系本科，神户大学经济学研究科博士毕业。在2014年担任现职前曾先后任教于中国人民大学和（日本）东北大学。主要从事国际经济学和宏观经济学方面的研究和教学工作。主要学术论文包括“Flying or Trapped?”（with T. Kunieda, K. Nishimura and P. Wang, Economic Theory, 2023）, “Trade Structure and Belief-driven Fluctuations in Global Economy,” (with K. Mino, Journal of International Economics, 2013), “Human Capital Accumulation, Home Production and Equilibrium Dynamics,” (Japanese Economic Review, 2008), “Status-Seeking, Catching-Up and Policy Effect Analysis in a Dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin Model,” (with K. Shimomura, Review of Development Economics, 2007), 「内生的成長と国際貿易 (国民経済雑誌, 2004)等。 | ||||
报告内容提要 | ||||
Fiscal sustainability has emerged as a pressing concern in Japan, with its net debt-output ratio experiencing a significant surge from below 40% in 1995 to over 160% in 2020. Given the substantial disparity between male and female labor supply in Japan, promoting female workforce participation has become a crucial policy objective in enhancing the country’s fiscal condition. In this paper, we extend the literature by incorporating female labor in the model to measure the size of Japan’s fiscal burden and investigate the implications of female labor supply for stabilizing government debt. We find that when the debt is stabilized solely by using consumption tax, the tax rate has to increase incredibly to 73% for 50 years before reaching the long-run steady state. However, through counterfactual experiments, we demonstrate that a 50% increase in female labor supply can reduce the required consumption tax for debt stabilization by19 percentage points. Importantly, an improvement in labor market equality in Japan, such as a 10% increase in the weight of female production, could decrease the necessary consumption tax for debt stabilization by approximately 30 percentage points. | ||||
